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#177 Dalio's Views of History

The world order is now rapidly shifting in important ways that have never happened before. Ray Dalio has charted 500 years of changes in the dominance of the China, Ottoman, Spanish, French, Dutch and British hegemonies. Dalio appeals to me because he is the only contemporary financial analyst with a view of history;

A simplified version of the same graph is attached that shows a close overtaking of the USA by China: 

A critical disparity between USA and China is shown in the balance of trade:


Another influence of the decline of the USA are the rising differences in income and wealth:



History should be seen as repeated cycles where a dominant global power is succeeded by a follow on global hegemony.

Base on the chart that shows a rise and fall in the importance of  UK, Dutch, US and China patterns, it appears that the arise of China may possibly overcome the current dominance position of the US. How long that may take, or whether it may happen, cannot be stated as this time except that preparations for such takeover in the next 30 years would warrant appropriate preparations.

Confirming some of the tendencies of US decline are the following:
1. The balance of trade is now shifting in favor of China.
2. The rising disparity in US incomes and wealth increases the instability of a regime.


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