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#193 US Economics Data and Trends

The Dow Jones added 251 points or 0.9% to 28,838, up from a deep decline. The S&P 500 climbed 57 points or 1.6% to 3534. The Nasdaq jumped 296 points or 2.6% to 11,876. The current prospects are that Dow Jones will decline in 2021.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States was worth 21,427 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. The GDP value of the United States represents 17.65 percent of the world economy.
GDP per capita PPP in the United States is expected to reach 59,770 USD by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States GDP per capita PPP is projected to trend around 60,500USD in 2021 and 61,100 USD in 2022, according to our econometric models.

Wage Growth in the United States is expected to be -2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United States to stand at 2.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Wages and Salaries Growth is projected to trend around 5.80 percent in 2021 and 3.60 percent in 2022.




#192 Global COVID Data

The USA with a population of <4% has 20% of COVID cases, ranking #1 in the number of inflicted infections:


China, with a population of 17% of the global population has only 0.4% of COVID cases:


New Canaan COVID death concentrated on the aged population:


COVID infections continue as a threat, but death remain concentrated when high infection rates prevail:



Summary:

People in New Canaan aged over 80% continue to be vulnerable to COVID  death.



#191 Federal Budget Forecast - October 2020





SOURCE: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56517

The budget deficit will reach a record $3.3 trillion (16 percent of GDP) in Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 and total $13 trillion over the subsequent decade. 

Deficits through 2030 will be $2.1 trillion higher than estimated prior to the pandemic and debt-to-GDP will be 11 percentage points higher. 

The current crisis will substantially depress revenue and increase spending in the near-term. 

All major trust funds will exhaust their reserves in the next 11 years. CBO projects Highway Trust Fund (HTF) insolvency by 2021, Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) insolvency by 2024, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) insolvency by 2026, and the Social Security retirement program by 2031.

Debt could grow even higher than projected. If policymakers enact $1 trillion of additional fiscal relief, extend expiring tax provisions, and increase appropriations with the economy, debt will reach 121 percent of GDP by 2030.

Summary:

Congressional Budget Office newest figures show that our long-term course is unsustainable, and much worse than before. Once the current crisis ends, policymakers must turn their attention to long-term deficit reduction to put the country on solid fiscal ground.  However, that is unlikely to happen